Talk:The Keys to the White House/Archive 4

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Lichtmann's rebuttal video and the popular vote statement

In Lichtmann's rebuttal video dated 17/10/24, he argues that a statement in his 2016 paper has been taken out of context and misunderstood as him claiming that the model predicts the popular vote rather than the electoral college tally. He claims that media articles have promoted this misunderstanding.

That statement from 2016 reads as follows: "As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes. However, only once in the last 125 years has the electoral college vote diverged from the popular vote."

He claims that he was simply making the point that the model in no way looks at individual states. To be fair to him, this is a distinction between the 13 Keys model and polling that he seems to be in the habit of making in media interviews, often said in a similar fashion but with more clarity. Can we once and for all discuss whether this statement clearly merits him stating that his model only predicts the popular vote and put this to bed.

For my two cents it seems he should have no idea whether the model predicts the popular vote or electoral college since the split never occurred in his dataset-- the only thing he can logically derive from his dataset is that his model should predict election winners. This is a comment speculating on his thought process and not my own judgement.2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:08, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Having re-read the statement, I'm conflicted due to the fact he starts the sentence with "As a national system" as well as using the otherwise defunct adjective "state-by-state". He could be saying: "The model predicts the popular vote (not exclusively) and does not conduct a state-by-state tally of the electoral college"

It is then confusing as to why he feels the need to say the electoral college rarely diverges from the popular vote as if he's arguing in favour of the value of his model in the face of a potential liability.

Perhaps I'm tying myself in knots, I'll let people tell me but a big part of why I'm raising this is his media interviews. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:23, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I believe you are referring to this video clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Af3hKnrexs.

The job of the Wikipedia is to summarize key points, not to take sides re: WP:RS. If there is a point of controversy, then an article lists the various arguments in a controversy section. This video raises concerns about two areas: WP:UNDUE or undue weight and Wikipedia:Cherrypicking - both areas that should be avoided in WP:BLP. The subject article is not my area of expertise, I work on various WP:BLP (biography of living persons articles), so perhaps other editors who are familiar with the subject can weigh in.-Classicfilms (talk) 01:45, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Great thank you but surely Wikipedia must consider some things objective fact? I only say this because it is Apprentice57's argument in the RfC. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 01:51, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Apologies, I'm not sure I understand your question entirely, feel free to rephrase it if you like- The Wikipedia is generally guided by WP:NPOV, which means looking at the wide scope of a topic- that is why I raised WP:UNDUE and Wikipedia:Cherrypicking. The goal is to avoid WP:OR, or original research, which can happen if a series of facts are strung together. I'm not saying that is happening here, I'm trying to respond to your overall questions. -Classicfilms (talk) 02:05, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

You ask a good question, and over the years Wikipedia has developed its answer. As Classicfilms said, the policy is set out in Wikipedia:Neutral point of view. Wikipedia generally does not take sides, but fringe viewpoints need not be given equal attention. One example given is that "the article on the Earth does not directly mention modern support for the flat Earth concept, the view of a distinct (and minuscule) minority; to do so would give undue weight to it." In that sense, the spherical Earth is treated as an objective fact.

That doesn't mean, however, that, for every dispute, Wikipedia editors consider the evidence, decide which opinion is correct, and present it as fact. Actually, the flat-Earth case is the exception. The general rule from WP:NPOV is:

Avoid stating seriously contested assertions as facts. If different reliable sources make conflicting assertions about a matter, treat these assertions as opinions rather than facts, and do not present them as direct statements.

Here, there are seriously contested assertions about the 2016 prediction. Apprentice57's argument in the RfC is that one side is correct and should therefore be presented as a direct statement. (Version 1 flatly asserts: "Lichtman's model incorrectly predicted the popular vote outcome.") That would violate the NPOV policy. JamesMLane t c 02:19, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Okay thank you both for clarifying and doing so accessibly. Should this specific controversy on the language and intended meaning of the statement be included in the article? It appears to be the main source of this dispute and the central premise behind several cited articles that have fuelled it. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 02:51, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

In my opinion, yes, this controversy is notable and should be included in the article. Version 2 presents both sides without adopting either. JamesMLane t c 03:05, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Yes, agree with JamesMLane on all points above. You might want to also look at this article, WP:NOT or "What the Wikipedia is Not," which may further clarify your questions. -Classicfilms (talk) 03:20, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Remember, the reason why the October 2016 paper is so crucial, and a smoking gun as to the fact it's a popular vote model here: there was no dispute! Lichtman, and his critics (like Nate Silver) all agreed it was a popular vote mode. That is why the dispute is a based on lichtman taking a fringe position.

That it has come under dispute post facto is irrelevant to a prediction. Predictions are all about what is said and claimed beforehand, not after. And Lichtman would have a motive in being dishonest here, as it buoys his reputation to be correct. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:48, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

The only neutral point of view is what Lichtman said about his predictions before November 2016. Those statements where he said what his system predicted and what he predicted are very clear and they directly note that he was only predicting the popular vote and say it was not predicting the Electoral College. This is a neutral POV. Caraturane (talk) 17:03, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

It is an objective fact that Lichtman said his system only predicts the popular vote. There are years and years of him saying so. Tomcleontis (talk) 16:07, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

This isn't necessarily of importance to the RfC/his article, but I think reading one of his older intro chapters in his book (which he republishes every 4 years roughly) is helpful. I did so with his 1990 book on the internet archive (importantly, old enough to be before 2000), my conclusion is that he recognizes the keys are a popular vote model (it states so explicitly more than once), but that was seen as sufficient to also predict the winner: https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1dc7wiy/allan_lichtmans_the_thirteen_keys_were_incorrect/ Despite the age of the 1990 book, the text of the keys has not changed.

His October 2016 paper is of importance because it establishes that there was no dispute to the keys predicting the popular vote on election's eve, it repeats most of the language from his books but shorter owing to the format. Apprentice57 (talk) 12:54, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for this but I must say that these statements are never exclusive and it does seem possible he's making the point that the keys are a national system rather than working state-by-state. I certainly held your view once and I get it but this could a case of miscommunication and clumsy language. I think this is supported by it being simply not rational for him to make this distinction, there's no basis for it in his dataset and these statements as you and almost everyone have read them don't make sense. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 14:55, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Strong disagree! But I appreciate the polite pushback. Apprentice57 (talk) 00:05, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

The split occurred in his dataset in 2000. He took credit for 2000 (like in this New York Times video) by saying he only predicted the popular vote. Caraturane (talk) 16:28, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

He was of the opinion that Al Gore won in 2000, you can see his submission to the federal commission cited in this article, it's also something he has restated a multitude of times in his YT videos and livestreams. It was the NYT narrator that told us about the 'split' not Lichtmann. All Lichtmann said was that he correctly predicted the popular vote which he did. Up until 2000, his model had correctly predicted the popular vote and electoral college. Because of his opinion on the 2000 election, in his view, he had also correctly predicted the electoral college.

We have to remain mindful of the context in which he made these statements-- to his beliefs, the popular vote had still not diverged from the electoral college until 2016. Given that, I don't think it's right to represent him as a liar because of this. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 16:41, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

No one is representing him as a liar (though it's not for nothing he has been caught being inconsistent and not telling the truth about some things like saying he switched to only predicting the winner after 2000, this is provably not true). It's notable that even in 2012 he used the same "the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes" line and even put in plain English in 2008 that a Keys “Win indicates the popular vote outcome for the party in power.”

This article is helpful to provide sources, I have been using it as a reference to find links that explain.

Caraturane (talk) 17:01, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Thank you, the 2008 paper is far clearer although his subsequent assertion that the point he makes in that statement is to distinguish between his model and polling calls into question if not this interpretation then the way we treat the statements in my view. It still raises the confounding question of why he would decide that his model only predicts the popular vote, this categorically cannot be derived from his dataset of elections from 1860-1980 that formulated the model (later elections constitute an application of the model). Again his use of the adjective "state-by-state" in most of these statements potentially supports this.

I think to take the position we're currently taking in light of WP:NPOV, we need undeniable proof that his system does not predict the electoral college. The fact that he often links his model to the popular vote may not be exclusive. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:21, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

The statement "the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes" is a direct assertion it does not predict the electoral college. He also wrote many times after 2016 that he made a change to his system to make it now just predict the Electoral college (though there is not documentation of this change before November 2016, only after the call was made "wrongly" in 2016, for example see this NPR article ). Caraturane (talk) 17:25, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

With all due respect, this NPR article does not evidence a 'revision'. You're of the view that the statement I highlighted in the original post is incontrovertible evidence of Lichtmann saying that the model does not predict the electoral college, I'm arguing that we should be less concrete in our interpretation. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:33, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

He uses the word "not," I don't know how much clearer that could be.

And sorry, I should have been more clear: I was using the NPR article as an example of him not mentioning he changed the system. He has written he has many times after the 2016 election, for example: after saying in 2016 multiple times he only predicted the popular vote, Lichtman wrote in a post for the Harvard Data Science Review in 2020 which said:

"In 2016, I made the first modification of the Keys system since its inception in 1981. I did not change any of the keys themselves or the decision-rule that any six or more negative keys predicts the defeat of the party holding the White House. However, I have switched from predicting the popular vote winner to the Electoral College winner because of a major divergence in recent years between the two vote tallies."

Caraturane (talk) 17:36, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I understand but you must see my point in the original post and first comment-- I'm not arguing that this is a reasonable interpretation for most readers, only that there's a good chance that it reflects reality.

The language he uses in his prediction proclaimations is part of his Keys system. He may have been under the belief prior to 2016 that the popular vote and electoral college was extremely unlikely to split due to the reasoning I set out above and subsequently fixed his language to be more precise. He explicitly says that he had not revised the keys themselves. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:46, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

At least a good enough chance to invoke WP:NPOV. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 17:47, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

I strongly disagree. This would take an extraordinary leap in usage of language. He said over, and over, and over, that he did not predict the Electoral College, that he only predicted the popular vote, and even referenced past elections prior to his life to show the keys only predict the popular vote (he wrote in 2004, for example: "As a nationally-based system the Keys cannot diagnose the results in individual states and thus are more attuned to the popular vote than the Electoral College results. The 2000 election, however, was the first time since 1888 that the popular vote verdict diverged from the Electoral College results. And the Keys still got the popular vote right in 2000, just as they did in 1888 when Democrat Grover Cleveland won the national tally but lost in the Electoral College to Republican Benjamin Harrison and in 1876 when Democrat Samuel Tilden won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes.").

The word "not" means they do not. If this is really what the matter of dispute comes down to then I think we have a very clear cut and dried result. Caraturane (talk) 17:49, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

But he's still making that statement potentially with the subtext that his model is a 'national system' rather than 'state-by-state'-- isn't it strange that in every statement we're considering, he uses this same language that would otherwise be irrelevant to the point you (and to be fair the vast majority of people) interpret him as making?

I'm not contesting the meaning of the word 'not' but the two clauses that come before it and the subtext of the statements. I sympathise with your viewpoint but I think it's best for other editors to weigh in, it seems we've made our arguments as best we can. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:25AE:ADFB:9C0C:A589 (talk) 18:04, 20 October 2024 (UTC)

Is this really how far we've come? "Not" means not. This cannot seriously be the argument, right? Tomcleontis (talk) 16:06, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

No it's absolutely not the argument I'm making and I've just explicitly stated that in the comment you're replying to. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:C0EE:D9DA:EB5C:31AC (talk) 16:12, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

Until someone can identify any area where Lichtman said he was changing what the keys predicted before the 2016 election, I believe this is a circular argument. There is only evidence that he switched to predicting the Electoral College for 2020 and now 2024, everything before November 8, 2016 cleanly puts that the keys predict the popular vote. Caraturane (talk) 17:17, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

I don't disagree that it is a valid viewpoint and the one that's most reasonable but it is an interpretation of the facts. I've suggested that we present the core facts themselves.

I will actually step back from this page now, I recognise this is frustrating for longtime editors. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:C0EE:D9DA:EB5C:31AC (talk) 17:56, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

I concur that Lichtman's words through 2016 unambiguously point to him predicting only the popular vote.

For example, see this similar section from his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016":

""The keys to the White House focus on national concerns such as economic performance, policy initiatives, social unrest, presidential scandal, and successes and failures in foreign affairs. Thus, they predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states. Indeed, no system could have predicted the 537 vote margin for George W. Bush in Florida that decided the 2000 election.

In three elections since 1860, where the popular vote diverged from the electoral college tally—1876 (when Democrat Samuel J. Tilden won the popular vote, but lost in the electoral college to Republican Rutherford B. Hayes), 1888, and 2000—the keys accurately predicted the popular vote winner. Based on the historical odds since 1860, the chances are better than twelve to one that the popular and electoral college vote will converge in any given election. However, these odds presume continuity over time in the relationship between popular and electoral college votes."

I actually don't know what more you could possibly add to make this clearer. Lichtman (1) states that the Keys ONLY predict the national popular vote, (2) indicates that he's fully aware that the EC & popular vote usually but don't always correlate, and (3) specifies that when the EC & popular vote are split, the Keys predict the popular vote winner.

This isn't remotely out of context, either - the very next paragraph reaffirms that the keys predict the popular vote results (no mention of EC), and indeed the entire book's methodology uses popular vote tables and reasons from them. Hangways1 (talk) 09:36, 1 November 2024 (UTC)

This is a fair conclusion, I thought it was important to make the case for Lichtman's argument in an effort to demonstrate that his record was somewhat disputed.

It's tricky to cite Lichtman's view especially when he reliably behaves in bad faith (I've read his attempted rewrite) but I do think it's worth providing in order to maintain that neutral balance, just sticking to a presentation of the most basic facts.

I'm very satisfied with what's on the page now, especially in that it explicitly refers to the referenced sources rather than adopting their argument while leaving it up to the reader to weigh the merits of Lichtman's testimony. 2A00:23C5:11E:F901:E91A:AC65:47F4:CE9F (talk) 01:57, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Further discussion on redundancy

@JamesMLane - sorry I could reply under your post. Your suggestion is to delete the specific sections on the 2000 election and the 2016 election? Jjazz76 (talk) 02:43, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Section at this point would be deleted. What I wrote would be all of "Lichtman's prediction record (1984–present)" up until the Table. (The table would remain.)

The material in those sections would not be deleted, however -- merely moved. JamesMLane t c 04:23, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Ok so how does this address issues of redundancy? It sounds like you are just proposing a new section? Jjazz76 (talk) 04:32, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

There is currently a section on the subject, which consists entirely of material supporting one POV. I would not propose a new section, but simply rewrite that existing section for neutrality. That would include incorporating there the material moved from the prediction section; including material presenting other POVs; and renaming the section "Popular vote versus electoral vote".

The basic idea is to have a brief summary under predictions, with all the blow-by-blow of the competing arguments in a single section. JamesMLane t c 04:47, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Ok that isn't about redundancy though.

It seems like you really want to talk about NPOV. My preference would be to discuss specific parts you don't think are NPOV, not just general sweeping statements that a certain section isn't NPOV. Jjazz76 (talk) 06:10, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

There are two separate issues.

Redundancy: In the current version, the POV that Lichtman got 2016 wrong is presented and argued for in the prediction section (under "2016 election") and then again in the "Prediction of popular vote" section.

Neutrality: In the current version, the predictions subsection on "2016 election" decidedly favors the POV that Lichtman got 2016 wrong. Similarly, the "Reception" section gives more evidence and argument to one POV than to the other.

You're right that these issues are related. If appropriately pro-Lichtman material were added in the prediction section and under "Reception" (either a "Support" subsection or a single "Popular vote versus electoral vote" subsection covering both sides), then the article's overall discussion of 2016 would be more neutral, but there'd be even more redundancy.

What I posted in the preceding section (the one that no longer accepts replies) addresses redundancy by having only a terse summary in the prediction section. It addresses neutrality by not recounting any of the arguments there. To keep it short, it tells the reader what the varying POVs are, without attempting to present or even summarize the arguments made by Lichtman's supporters or detractors. JamesMLane t c 15:03, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Got it. I don't support that proposal. I think the article is plenty balanced as it is and sufficiently detailed. Jjazz76 (talk) 22:34, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Agreed with Jjazz. NPOV does not mean watering down criticism, the article as it is is adequately neutral and even provides Lichtman's responses to criticism, which is beyond what it required. Caraturane (talk) 03:08, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

I have not proposed "watering down" criticism. I've specifically said the criticism should be included, as it was in my neutral version, and I've added that my version wasn't carved in stone and that we could improve the presentation of the criticism.

As for the blatant non-neutrality, to take just one particularly egregious example that I've mentioned: In the current version, the reader gets to know all about the criticism of Lichtman as having missed 2016. The reader learns that particular named reliable sources -- an Atlantic author and Nate Silver -- say that Lichtman missed. All of that is fine. On the other side, however, there's merely a mention that there is another side. The reader has to look at the footnotes to learn who they are, and even then some are omitted.

There appears to be no support here for my preferred solution of putting all these arguments, pro and con, in one section. Therefore, I'll go ahead with beginning to balance the "Criticism" with a "Support" section. Later we can tackle the non-neutrality of the discussion under the predictions recap. JamesMLane t c 16:34, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

I took out the second "of the Atlantic" because that person has her own page. Happy to discuss rewording "Gilad Edelman of The Atlantic" if that's going to be an issue.

I'm fine with a support section as long as it includes RS. And I'll not I'm going to object to any sources that make general claims about Lichtman that come before the 2024 election. Jjazz76 (talk) 06:19, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

James, I think you might get better reception to your proposals here if you let go of the constant (and generally passive aggressive) certainty that your pet version of the article was definitively NPOV.

• Most of the editors here do not seem to regard the article in its current form as POV.
• The "2016 election" section solely quotes from Lichtman (e.g. the 2016 election section) and thus does not present a POV — you have not yet responded to this point to my knowledge (and I have raised it several times), but continue to insist it is non-neutral.
• Meanwhile, I have repeatedly edited both the Media Coverage and Criticism sections to incorporate your requests... only for you to shift the goalposts and demand yet more.
  • (e.g. I myself edited in more sources to support Lichtman's positive reception in 2016, the Nostradamus quote, the 9/10 from 1984 to 2020 quote, etc., and I reorganised the Criticism section on the same principle your own Version 2 used. You simply do not acknowledge these changes to promote Lichtman's/your POV and demand it represent his POV even more strongly.)
• Your 'Version 2' received exactly one editor who agreed with you that it was more neutral, but several who thought it was actively less neutral and omitted key criticisms and sources. (For example, your version glossed over Lichtman's repeated statements in 2016 that he was ONLY making a popular vote prediction with a mere "Lichtman was USUALLY referring to the popular vote" and nothing more. This is clearly not NPOV, either.)

The fact that you seem to regard the vast majority of editors here (and their work) as blatantly and undeniably POV, even while they also make pro-Lichtman changes at your request and remove anti-Lichtman vandalism (which multiple of us here have also done & discussed), should set off some alarm bells that perhaps you're the one pushing a POV constantly.

I'm certainly open to potential redundancy changes — I raised this issue too when describing my own edits to bring the Criticism section more in line with your Version 2. Hangways1 (talk) 10:32, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

I thought I had responded to the point you say I neglected. If I missed it in the blizzard of comments here, my apologies.

Here's the response:

• There's a POV that says Lichtman missed 2016. Someone arguing for that POV can include statements from Lichtman and also statements from independent sources.
• There's a POV that says Lichtman got 2016 right. Someone arguing for that POV can include statements from Lichtman and also statements from independent sources.

Simply saying "Well, we quoted Lichtman" doesn't prove neutrality.

To take the Brandeis piece as one example: It's footnoted twice, in the context of saying that Lichtman has called a majority of the elections. The reader does not learn that Brandeis credited him with getting 2016 right. By contrast, the reader does learn that Silver, the Atlantic, and a couple of nonnotable bloggers say he got it wrong.

I'm sorry if you think I'm moving the goalposts. I've been raising issues like this consistently. I'm now going ahead with what I said in my post just above -- i.e., since it's obvious that the removal of a separate "Criticism" section and its replacement with a single "Issues" section would be instantly reverted, I'll give up on trying to go issue-by-issue with pros and cons, and instead write a "Support" section. JamesMLane t c 03:26, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

The way the article is is neutral, you just do not seem to like what it says, despite the fact that reputable sources reporting on this issue of 2016 specifically have been very clear about it. You have continued to disparage and use the same language as Lichtman in referring to the reporters and critics who have actually only reported on the facts here concerning 2016 without any dispute of the actual facts reported we have all continued to cite. That is clearly not neutral.

By the way, as a matter of reference, Lichtman went to Brandeis. We should probably go with a more neutral source, as it is probably better left to someone else. Don't get me wrong, I don't really think they're being biased other than puffing up an alum, but if these are the kinds of arguments we're going to resort to, then I'm happy to get into it if you intend to nickle and dime us handful of editors who have continuously attempted to engage with you in good faith only to see you move the goalpost and resort to Lichtman's own disproven statements time and time again.

I do not believe this article needs a "Support" section beyond what it already has. Caraturane (talk) 03:35, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

I also want to note, that with the amended version of the articles (and kudos to hangways for leading the charge on that) we've now have a total of 5 of us with a variety of positions on NPOV who have arrived at a compromise and are happy with the current state of the article at least as per the POV discussion. (Plus two less consistent editors who seemed to support these changes too).

@JamesMLane I'd ask that you remove the disputed POV notice at this time. We've thoroughly discussed the POV issue since you added that tag (and when the RfC was held), brought in new voices, and all other editors are happy with the compromised reached (at least as far as POV goes). It doesn't seem proper that one user can hold out with this tag over the entire article in this circumstance. Not to mention it casts doubt on other parts of the article completely unrelated to our discussions.

We can of continue discussing POV edits, and of course adjacent issues like redundancy, but it would be a show of good faith on your end. Hangways has constructively laid out in two recent comments why it's been upsetting for us to try to edit with you.

I suppose we can look into the NPOV noticeboard if that isn't acceptable to you, but I would prefer we stop involving third parties. Apprentice57 (talk) 14:30, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

Yeah I would second Apprentice57's request. A lot of hard work towards consensus building has happened on this page over the last month, and I think it is a sensible and prudent request. Jjazz76 (talk) 05:20, 22 November 2024 (UTC)