Wikipedia

Decision desk

A decision desk is a team of experts that one or many US news organizations assemble to analyze incoming data about election results and project winners on election day.[1][2][3][4] Decision desks use exit polling data as well as officially reported results as they come in, to project and then "call" the winners of elections on election night.[5][6] "Projected winners" are only unofficial; depending on state or local laws, election officials may still have days or weeks after election day to complete counting votes and certifying winners.[6]

Organizations and methodology

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In the United States, three major organizations aggregate election results across the country: the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, and the National Election Pool.[7] Each organization uses different methodology - the Associated Press has a team of ground reporters that receive data from state county election boards, and also gets results from data feeds of election websites,[8] while Decision Desk HQ uses a mix of traditional phone call and fax communication with election officials, as well as an application programming interface (API) that pulls election results as they come in from county and state election websites.[9]

According to Vox, race calls from these organizations have an accuracy of over 99%. A handful of races have been called incorrectly, requiring corrections; these include a 2018 California's 21st congressional district election, which both the Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ called incorrectly. In that race, a larger-than-expected number of late-arriving mail-in ballots was responsible for the erroneous projections.[10]

History

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United States

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Exit polling data was gathered by Voter News Service which existed from 1990 to 2003, and which was disbanded due to disastrous mistakes in the 2000 presidential election and in the 2002 elections.[11][12] Afterward they formed the National Election Pool, which produced skewed exit poll results in the 2004 US presidential election[13] and in the 2016 presidential elections.[5] Megyn Kelly was made famous when she walked backstage to Fox News' decision desk team during the broadcast of the 2012 US presidential election results, when Karl Rove contradicted the team's prediction that Obama would win.[14][15]

Prior to 2011, most race calls were made by television networks or the Associated Press; the advent of social media enabled other organizations like Decision Desk HQ to begin to report election results as well.[16] By 2026, the Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, and the National Election Pool had established themselves as the major aggregators of election results.[7]

Canada

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In Canada, the CBC News decision desk declares the winner of Canadian federal elections.[17]

References

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  1. ↑ Gough, Paul J. (6 November 2006). "Political pressure mounts on decision desks". Associated Press via The Hollywood Reporter.
  2. ↑ Rutenberg, Jim (3 November 2004). "An Early Night for Viewers Becomes a Cliffhanger". The New York Times.
  3. ↑ Feinberg, Stephen E. (2014). "Chapter 13: Statistics in Service to the Nation". In Lin, Xihong; Genest, Christian; Banks, David L.; Molenberghs, Geert; Scott, David W.; Wang, Jane-Ling (eds.). Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science. CRC Press. ISBN 9781482204988.
  4. ↑ Westin, David (2012). Exit Interview. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN 9781466815568.
  5. 1 2 Shepard, Steven (9 December 2017). "Is this the beginning of the end of the exit poll?". Politico.
  6. 1 2 "How does CNN make election projections?". CNN. October 13, 2008. Archived from the original on April 21, 2009.
  7. 1 2 "How Media Outlets Call Races from Unofficial Election Results". Bipartisan Policy Center. February 20, 2026. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  8. ↑ Corasaniti, Nick (March 3, 2026). "What You Need to Know About The Times's 2026 Election Results". New York Times. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  9. ↑ Matthews, David; Steiger, Kay (November 6, 2020). "How the press calls elections, explained". Vox. Retrieved February 19, 2024.
  10. ↑ Matthews, Dylan (October 29, 2020). "How the press calls elections, explained". Vox (website). Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  11. ↑ Doan, Amy (November 29, 2000). "Antitrust Group Targets Voter News Service". Forbes.com. Retrieved August 16, 2012.
  12. ↑ Morin, Richard (January 14, 2003). "Networks To Dissolve Exit Poll Service". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 4 August 2011.
  13. ↑ Rutenberg, Jim (5 November 2004). "Report Says Problems Led to Skewed Surveying Data". The New York Times.
  14. ↑ Reeve, Elspeth (November 7, 2012). "The Time Karl Rove Took on the Fox News Decision Desk". The Atlantic.
  15. ↑ "What each of the TV networks are planning for election night". Madera Tribune. November 4, 2016.
  16. ↑ Smith, Ben (September 25, 2014). "A Right-Wing Truck Dispatcher Is America's Fairest New Election Night Vote Counter". BuzzFeed News. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  17. ↑ "How it's done: CBC decision desk FAQs". CBC News. October 22, 2008.
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