2025 Canadian federal election in New Brunswick

2025 Canadian federal election in New Brunswick
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All 10 New Brunswick seats in the House of Commons
Registered	641,089
Turnout	463,103 (72.24%)
Prime minister before election; Mark Carney; Liberal	Prime minister after election ; Mark Carney; Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 10 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of New Brunswick (2.9% of all members).

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. New Brunswick's seat allocation stayed the same at 10 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in New Brunswick is 77,561 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 30,287 less people per electoral district than the national average.^[2]

Timeline

Predictions

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	GPC	PPC	Others	Margin of error^[a]	Sample size^[b]	Polling method^[c]	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link						Others	Margin of error^[a]	Sample size^[b]	Polling method^[c]	Lead
Narrative Research	August 18, 2024	^[3]	32	43	10	10	4	0	± 2.6 pp	400	Telephone	11

Results

Summary

New Brunswick summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election
Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats
	Liberal	247,473	53.4%	11.0pp	6 / 10 (60%)
	Conservative	189,003	40.8%	7.2pp	4 / 10 (40%)
	New Democratic	13,531	2.9%	9.0pp	0 / 10 (0%)
	Green	7,849	1.7%	5.3pp	0 / 10 (0%)
	People's	3,952	0.8%	5.3pp	0 / 10 (0%)
	Independents and minor parties	1,295	0.3%	0.5pp	0 / 10 (0%)
Total		463,103	100%	–	10 / 10 (100%)

^[1]

Comparison with national results

Results by party
Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
Party		NB	Natl.	diff.	Seats in caucus
	Liberal	53.4	43.7	+12.1	6 / 169 (4%)
	Conservative	40.8	41.3	-0.5	4 / 144 (3%)
	New Democratic	2.9	6.3	-3.4	0 / 7 (0%)
	Green	1.7	1.2	+0.5	0 / 1 (0%)
	People's	0.8	0.7	+0.1	no caucus
	Total	–	–	–	10 / 343 (3%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.^[4]^[5]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in New Brunswick
Party		Leader	Seats			Popular vote
Party		Leader	Elected	%	Δ	Votes	%	Δ (pp)
	Liberal	Mark Carney	5	50.0	1	11,042	36.87	7.63
	Conservative	Pierre Poilievre	5	50.0	1	10,606	35.41	13.80
	Green	Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault	0	0	0	3,261	10.89	6.00
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	0	0	0	3,223	10.76	11.09
	Other		0	0	0	1,002	3.35	2.44
	People's	Maxime Bernier	0	0	0	814	2.72	3.59
Total			10	100.00	0	29,948	100.00	–
Source: Student Vote Canada^[6]

Notes

↑ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
↑ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
↑ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

1 2 Canada, Elections. "Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories". enr.elections.ca.
↑ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
↑ https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf^{[permanent dead link]}
↑ "Student Vote". Student Vote Canada. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
↑ Otis, Daniel (2025-04-29). "Students in Canada elected the Conservatives in a mock federal election". CTVNews. Retrieved 2025-05-05.
↑ "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results". Retrieved April 29, 2025.

[MOE-3] In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.

[sample-4] Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.

[method-5] "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

[auto-1] 1 2 Canada, Elections. "Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories". enr.elections.ca.

[2] "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.

[6] ttps://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf^{[permanent dead link]}

[7] "Student Vote". Student Vote Canada. Retrieved April 29, 2025.

[8] Otis, Daniel (2025-04-29). "Students in Canada elected the Conservatives in a mock federal election". CTVNews. Retrieved 2025-05-05.

[9] "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results". Retrieved April 29, 2025.

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